Oh wait maybe you shouldn't say it Button

a PROGRESSIVE won the Supreme Court seat with a 11 point margin in the state of Wisconsin

LOL

A 15 point shift from 2015's SC election in WI

From Wisconsin. Hard to predict our politics. Notorious for going one way for state politics, but hard the other way for national positions.

#CA48 Primary:
Rohrabacher (R-inc) 31%
Baugh (R) 15%
Keirstead (D) 14%
Rouda (D) 13%
Siddiqui (D) 5%
Oatman (D) 4%
Payne (D) 2%
Gabbard (R) 2%

ALG Research/@drhanskeirstead Internal Poll 5/6-8
https://t.co/gRfWWyWHOv

It's ok for you to say this stuff because you're Button

The state of WI is not a liberal state

it's +0 PVI state

If I said it, FLanon would throw a fit and say I'm demoralizing.

it does have a lot of white voters

winning a state like this as a PROGRESSIVE with 11 whopping points?!

Dear God

To make matters worse, zak,

The SC conservative majority in Wisconsin has narrowed to 1 seat

That is a good poll damn

vote Baugh

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Futhermore

🆙 | **zakattack04 leveled up!**

Trump at a -14 with whites there.

right?

Or was it -11

-11

Rust Belt Whites gambled their vote with Trump,

and now they're regretting it

If you think i'm just shilling, well,

explain the horrible election results we've been seeing

Because they're pretty grim indicators

No I agree with you.

But it makes no sense because those states weren't effected by immigration nor was it their top issue.

Trump is handling our terrible trade policy and even implemented tariffs

and did tax reform

That was all for the rust belt

Um no sweetie

always hate it when you say that...

@zakattack04

Small towns in the Midwest have diversified more quickly than almost any part of the U.S. since the start of an immigration wave at the beginning of this century. The resulting cultural changes appear to be moving the political needle.

A Wall Street Journal analysis of census data shows that counties in a distinct cluster of Midwestern states—Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota—saw among the fastest influxes of nonwhite residents of anywhere in the U.S. between 2000 and 2015. Hundreds of cities long dominated by white residents got a burst of Latino newcomers who migrated from Central America or uprooted from California and Texas.

Well yeah, but they haven't taken their jobs.

Nor do they care for them yet.

Remember it was the same with CA button.

we didn't care about the immigrants initially

Everyone who did care left or is leaving

yep

It'll be just like America too.

New setting

same plot

@🎃Boo-ton🎃

This is the HD special election in PA tomorrow

Trump won by almost 15 points, and Lamb won it by more than 5

We'll probably lose it tomorrow

Shapiro linked to a poll of the senate that was much more favorable for republicans than RCP

old poll

that was fairly recent

>literally calling it old because it's favorable to us

He mentioned it on his May 5th show

>Wisconsin
>Down 5

I found many things favorable.

This chart isn't one of them.

um

no

I'm calling it old because it's old

Hi calling it old because it's old, I'm Dad!

Can someone hold this bot's head under the water until the bubbles stop?

I 2nd that motion

https://twitter.com/TheDemocrats/status/950036099149287424

anyone here remember this tweet ?

>listing Jewish women twice

also, who here has read this article

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/12/opinion/sunday/liberals-youre-not-as-smart-as-you-think-you-are.html

"I know many liberals, and two of them really are my best friends. Liberals make good movies and television shows. Their idealism has been an inspiration for me and many others. Many liberals are very smart. But they are not as smart, or as persuasive, as they think.

And a backlash against liberals — a backlash that most liberals don’t seem to realize they’re causing — is going to get President Trump re-elected.

People often vote against things instead of voting for them: against ideas, candidates and parties. Democrats, like Republicans, appreciate this whenever they portray their opponents as negatively as possible. But members of political tribes seem to have trouble recognizing that they, too, can push people away and energize them to vote for the other side. Nowhere is this more on display today than in liberal control of the commanding heights of American culture."

Why point out what they're doing wrong?

LOL this^

Well Ima get a good nights sleep tonight, because I know I won't be able to tomorrow when he get roll stomped in PA a much needed state :D

Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake - Napoleon Bonaparte

Very true

As of May 25th, Big Brother Discord will be changing their privacy policy around information we give to them. Any messages and images you send will be considered information you provide to them so they can keep it and record it legally

this is why I always say

never link anything to your real personal contacts
don't say anything illegal

Pennsylvania
Races to watch: 1st, 5th, 7th, 10th and 14th congressional districts; governor
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

Nebraska
Races to watch: 2nd Congressional District
Polls close: 9 p.m. Eastern

Idaho
Races to watch: governor
Polls close: 10 p.m. Eastern in the southern half of the state, 11 p.m. Eastern in the north

Oregon
Races to watch: governor
Ballots due: 10 p.m. Eastern in part of Malheur County, 11 p.m. Eastern everywhere else

#BREAKING Projection By @Benchmarkpol:
Democrats To Take Control Of The House Of Representative In 2018: https://t.co/C2FIY5h4AL

Trump Job Approval:
Approve 47%
Disapprove 52%

@Rasmussen_Poll 5/10-14
https://t.co/YFPdGGPjZ2

@🎃Boo-ton🎃

^

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1IG1BL

Gotta hold PA gentlemen

2014 PA Dem Primary

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 I hope you know that turnout changes over time

Yes

And Democratic Turnout has surpassed Republican Turnout so far

In Alabama, 97% of Clinton voters showed up to vote compared to 48% of Trump voters

Okay 👌

@zakattack04

5 Ratings changes from Inside Elections, all toward Democrats:

MI11: Tilt R ➡️ Tossup
NJ02: Tossup ➡️ Tilt D
NJ11: Tossup ➡️ Tilt D
NC09: Likely R ➡️ Tilt R
OH12: special Likely R ➡️ Tilt R

That's bullcrap.

The polling, approval rating, news, and primary results show Republicans gaining, yet they push some districts to the left.

That's why we trust the Red Storm Crystal Ball instead...

>trusting a new, partisan forecast created by you

yea, no

Better than the rest.

And I would it's only slightly partisan.

Take my map and give me a bad projection there.

It's actually perfect.

My projection so far,

GOP lose these seats for sure: 7 (AZ-02, CA-49, FL-27, NJ-02, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07)

I put all of those in the Democratic column.

Barring a great jungle primary result in CA-49, we'll lose all of them.

@Pielover19 Special election in your state BTW

Really?

yes

For what position?

And is it today?

oops nvm, that's for the 21st

There are elections today.

Special election to fill the seat of the Democratic senate minority leader, and another special election to fill the seat of a Republican convicted of mail fraud.

The senate one is in a majority black district, so we don't really have a chance to pick it up. The house seat is pretty close to me, but I'm not in the district. It's right near Huntsville.

Could be a Dem pickup.

It's going blue

Maybe.

We have to watch this election tonight, though.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 you're right

Pielover is going to get BTFO'd by the true pollsters

@zakattack04 Trust the experts

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/05/15/rand-paul-budget-senate-589013

This would be a dream... I only wish

it'd be pretty nice

but I doubt it'll pass

everyone needs a slice of the cake with the budgets

I'd rather just pass it

Cut everyone

Everything*

that's the thing

>Cut everything

>No wall funding

everyone has to please their donors and fund their shit

Democrats will never yeild though

it's not a budget button ffs

Yep

>No funding for more border and ICE agents

this is a separate bill

what is this an amendment

I think it's an ordinary bill

They call them revisitory Bills or something

When you pass a bill you can go back and edit it

Change spending or cut it but not add to us

Why would we lose NJ 02?

@Deleted User you're gunna lose it

The democrat is GETTIN out their whips bud

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html

Can you actually tell me why

Or no

The Republicans are out of line and they're going to whip us back in

Ask button I'm at school

That is an amazing reason

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/05/15/trump-wants-to-win-colorado-and-minnesota-in-2020-one-is-more-likely-than-the-other/

!

Trump is hoping to win CO and MN in 2020

if he builds it and gets a mandate in 2018

I think it's way too early to make that call

Only one problem, the incumbent usually underperforms in their second bid for office

Nah

There's been a trend of people winning reelection in the past few cycles

It's there a 1.1 point swing in favor for Democrats nationwide, Trump loses the election

got to think of that incumbency advantage though

I'd say it's too early to call at this point

The guy in power right now is pretty popular

I don't see a massive swing against him

Remember, Obama lost millions of voters from 2008 to 2012

yes

and won

and he was moderately popular

Yeah cause he was a terrible president too

And still won

but it was closer than it was last time

okay

he lost NC and IN

and almost lost other states

but on the same token, what about george bush

And McCain was awful

9/11

Lol

I am talking about NJ 02

Lol

Well to close this discussion

No way MN is going red

CO isn't either

There are a couple of factors you should keep in mind for re-election in 2020: Incumbency, popularity and who's running against him

anyways, wouldn't ever say that a district is ever certain to go one way or another

No way Minnesota is going red?

How

Twin cities

Somalis

if Trump manages to pull himself up and get a mandate in congress, 2020 will be a landslide

He still only lost that by 1.5%

if he doesn't, then it gets pretty competitive

So many vulnerable states

but anyways, better margins would be immense for his campaign promises

I think we can win Minnesota

I am not sure about Colorado though

He also only won MI by .1%

PA by <1% and same with FL

And WI too

He's not taking MN

All the trends are against him and the democrats are going to run a good candidate

If he manages to get better congressional margins, then he'll take it easily

Nope

It'll be a very productive Congress

Won't matter, I know for sure.

And a whole lot of campaign promises would get through

Solid 96%

"won't matter"

yep

what do you mean exactly

I mean that it won't matter, the biggest probability is MN and CO are staying blue

PA and WI are going blue also in 2020

The question is

Who will run against Trump

Bernie

If Trump gets congress much more on his side, then the entire base would come back to vote for him in 2020

I think that's the biggest factor for 2020

And he could potentially swing people to vote for him

Honesty the democrats can run anyone and do well

Clinton was so bad

No

So unpopular

That is not true

Biden would do better

There's a ton of people they'd basically be shooting themselves in the foot by running

If they really want to win

He would be their best option in winning

They rub Michelle Obama

?

Run*

But he'd become an octogenarian in office

Michelle was always a meme to me

Michelle will get all the obama voters

Nah

not all of them

What the blacks

Yeah

And any criticism you give to her will be called racist or mysoginust

Can't beat her

We could see 3 Obama officials run against each other

right because that worked so well with Hillary

Yeah

I don't know, I just don't picture her doing well on a debate stage